Soils for Church Growth: What the Research Says about Persecution, Wealth, and Happiness

by George C. Bush

Stanley Hauerwas has suggested that the Parable of the Sower in Matthew 13 can be applied to a study of church growth in various cultures (Hauerwas 2015, 129-130). In particular, he suggests that wealth and the fear of persecution are hindrances to church growth. This article explores whether there is any statistical data that either support or refute this suggestion.

Stanley Hauerwas has suggested that the Parable of the Sower in Matthew 13 can be applied to a study of church growth in various cultures (Hauerwas 2015, 129-130). In particular, he suggests that wealth and the fear of persecution are hindrances to church growth. This article explores whether there is any statistical data that either support or refute this suggestion.

The first task is to find available data relating to the various factors in the parable. There are at least two ways to measure the growth of the Church in a particular region or country. The first is to measure (or estimate) how many persons have been added during the year. This measure would put China out in front because the Church there is already very large. 

A more accurate measure is the percentage growth rate. This avoids an exaggerated apparent growth in a large Church, but may exaggerate the apparent growth in a very small Church. For example, with fewer than fifteen thousand Christians, Afghanistan need only add few hundred Christians to have a significant percentage growth rate. On the other hand, with seventy-five million Evangelicals, China may add two million a year and still show only a small percentage growth.  

Operation World provides the percentage growth rate for Evangelicals in virtually every country in the world, along with lists of the fastest and slowest growth rates (Mandryk 2010, 916).

It is hard to imagine what sort of data could express the activity of the ‘evil one.’ Data for persecution is much easier since the World Watch List from Open Doors provides an annual ranking of the countries where persecution against Christians is the most severe (World Watch List 2016). 

If we assume that the “deceitfulness of wealth” is a problem chiefly among the relatively prosperous, there are various ways of ranking countries by deceitfulness of wealth. We have chosen the World Bank’s ranking of per capita gross national income adjusted to purchasing power (Gross national income per capita 2015). ‘Trouble’ is too broad a concept to be easily quantified. The closest index for “worries of this life” found in Matthew 13 that we could find was a table of “Happiness” from the World Happiness Report (Ranking of Happiness 2013-2015). The criteria used for happiness are much broader than just a reversal of “the worries of this life.”

There are difficulties with using data from a variety of sources. They have been compiled for different purposes at slightly different times. They have made different choices of countries to be included, and so there are gaps in our tables of comparisons. 

In particular, the World Watch List has only the fifty countries with the worst persecution record. A blank in this column does not mean that there is no persecution in that country; it just means that it is not among the worst. As a result, we are working with a rather small sample. We make no attempt at a sophisticated statistical analysis, but even a superficial scanning of the tables suggests some possibly significant conclusions.

Table 1 lists the countries with more than five percent annual growth of Evangelicals along with persecution rank, purchasing power rank, and happiness rank, where these ranks are available. Table 2  gives similar data for the countries with less than one percent annual Evangelical growth. Table 3 (see page 39) reverses the point of view and lists the countries where persecution is the worst, along with the rate of Evangelical growth for each. 

Persecution & Church Growth

Table 1 shows that of the thirty-one countries with over five percent Evangelical growth, fourteen are among the fifty with the worst persecution. Table 2 shows that only one of the countries with less that one percent Evangelical growth rate is in the World Watch List.

The World Watch List cites the top nine countries as suffering extreme levels of persecution. Table 3 shows that of these, five have a growth rate of six percent or more. It also shows that of the fifty countries where persecution is the worst, fourteen have an annual Evangelical growth rate of more that five percent. For the world as a whole, the Evangelical growth rate is 2.6% (Mandryk 2010, 3). Of the fifty countries with the worst persecution, forty one are above that world average in church growth. 

Although it would be difficult to be exact about the connection, the evidence seems very strong that persecution and rapid Evangelical growth often go together. Causal relationships between growth and persecution are mostly speculation. Does persecution refine the Church and make it more effective in evangelism? Does conspicuous church growth alarm the government or the dominant religious group and trigger persecution? Does an unwillingness to face opposition stifle the ability of a church to grow? These are questions that cannot be answered by looking at the numbers.

Wealth & Church Growth

Purchasing power data are available for 213 countries. This puts the quartile divisions at 53, 106, and 160. Of the thirty-one countries with rapid Evangelical growth, only twenty-five appear in the table of per capita purchasing power. The others are quite small or may be reluctant to release data. 

Of the twenty-five, twelve are in the poorest quarter of world purchasing power. The remainder are quite evenly spread over the other three quarters. Of the thirty-four countries with Evangelical growth below one percent, purchasing power rank is available for 25. Of these, fourteen are in the richest quarter of purchasing power and only one is in the lowest quarter. This superficial study of the data seems to suggest that prosperity does not usually encourage Evangelical growth.

Happiness & Church Growth

There are 157 entries in Happiness ranking. That puts the quartile divisions at 39, 78, and 118. Rankings are available for twenty-one of the countries with the most rapid Evangelical growth. These entries are fairly evenly spread over the four quarters, so it is impossible to draw any conclusions from this data. 

However, of the eighteen countries with the lowest Evangelical growth rate for which Happiness ranks are available, ten are in the highest quarter and only three are in the lower half. Whatever the Happiness rank is measuring, a high level of Happiness does not seem to encourage Evangelical growth.

Conclusion

Our rather informal analysis suggests that prosperity and the concern about money that so often accompanies it are often associated with low church growth. Persecution and church growth often go together. Perhaps it is unwillingness to face persecution rather than the actual experience of persecution that is a hindrance to church growth. 

We can be less confident about “the cares of the world” as a hindrance to church growth. The level of Happiness does not seem to have much effect on rapid church growth, but slow church growth seems to go along with considerable Happiness. Perhaps the available data for Happiness do not give a reverse measure of what the Bible means by “cares of the world.” 

All of our conclusions are broad statistical trends. They are not predictors for individual countries or societies. The growth of the Church in a particular country may not at all follow this broad pattern. Hauerwas commented specifically on the Church in America, but a paraphrase of his conclusion applies more generally: “The church in [a prosperous, tolerant nation] simply is not a soil capable of growing deep roots” (Matthew, 129-130).

The reasons behind church growth or lack of it are very complex. We have touched only on the ones suggested by the Parable of the Sower that seem to lend themselves to quantitative study. Ultimately, significant church growth depends on the work of the Holy Spirit. It is we who are called to plant and water, “but only God who gives the growth” (1 Cor. 3:7).

References

Gross national income per capita 2015. World Bank. Accessed September 14, 2016, from databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GNIPC.pdf.

Hauerwas, Stanley. 2015. Matthew. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Brazos Press.

Mandryk, Jason.2010. Operation World. Colorado Springs, Colo.: Biblica Publishing.

Ranking of Happiness 2013-2015. Accessed September 15, 2016, from Worldhappiness.report/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/03/HR-V1_web.pdf.

World Watch List 2016. Open Doors USA. Accessed September 13, 2016, from opendoorsusa.org/christian-persecution/world-watch-list. 

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George C. Bush is retired from a dual career as associate professor of mathematics and ‘tentmaker’ missionary. He taught mathematics and computer science for twelve years in three Muslim countries in the Middle East and was involved in various missions activities.

EMQ, Vol. 53, No. 4. Copyright  © 2017 Billy Graham Center for Evangelism.  aAll rights reserved. Not to be reproduced or copied in any form without written permission from EMQ editors.