Twenty First Century Population Factors and Leadership of Spiritual Movements

by Steve Clinton

Today’s population growth is driving change in unprecedented ways. The challenges and opportunities for all aspects of life are at a critical level. No generation has ever faced these issues; there are no ready-made answers. In the last 150 years the world’s population has grown from five hundred million to six billion.

Today’s population growth is driving change in unprecedented ways. The challenges and opportunities for all aspects of life are at a critical level. No generation has ever faced these issues; there are no ready-made answers. In the last 150 years the world’s population has grown from five hundred million to six billion.

Half the people who have ever lived are alive today. The population growth rate was fairly stable for many centuries, in spite of plague, war and expanding travel (Perry 1965, 41, 130). The gains and losses were offset over time by a slight positive growth rate until the advent of modern medicine and hygiene in the mid-1600s. The infant death rate began to decline and overall health began to improve. With the beginnings of the industrial age in 1850, and the increased ability to feed, house, care for and employ more people, the growth rate rose dramatically while the death rate declined.

By 1900 churches averaged 150 people per pastor (Tranter 1973). According to the Global Pastors’ Network, perhaps ninety-five percent of pastors worldwide today have no graduate level training (Bright and Davis 2002). Back then, pastoral training was mainly done on an apprentice model—the new pastor learned from the senior pastor and other village pastors.

Most of the world’s Christians were European or American, with Latin America ranking third. Africa had fewer Christians in 1900 as a percentage of its population than in 1400. The Middle East, Southeast Asia and China had relatively few Christians (Kane 1972, 207-210). These proportions changed dramatically in the early twentieth century (see figure 1).

Public expression of commitment to Christianity grew throughout the twentieth century until approximately two billion people named Christ as Lord. By the year 2000 there were approximately four to five million churches (Kennedy 1993, 23), with an average of more than four hundred people per church.

By the end of the century there were approximately 150 graduate level seminaries in the world, roughly seventy five of which were in North America. Africa had six graduate level seminaries in 1996, only one of which was accredited. Latin America had six until the accrediting society increased the standards to meet international standards—and now they have none. Together these 150 schools graduate less than fifteen thousand per year, and certainly not all graduates become pastors.

In simple math terms, if fifteen thousand seminarians graduate per year for forty years, there will be 600,000 new graduates in the next forty years. However, if the church’s growth rate continues, we will need five million new pastors in the next forty years. Thus eighty-five to ninety percent of the world’s new churches will have pastoral leadership that is not seminary trained.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE DEMOGRAPHICS
Despite the last half century of progress in Christian outreach and teaching (evangelism, apologetics, small groups, discipleship, church planting, seminary education) and in scientific and technological growth (family planning, food and agriculture, globalization, etc.), the early twenty-first century will require even more. Population growth will demand this. Countries, cities and churches that adapt will rise with the tide. Those who do not adapt will be swamped. The change will not be slow. The greatest century of opportunity for the church lies just ahead of us.

Church ministries of the future will be increasingly led by laymen and women. This is a strength, and will demand that more people be trained for leadership, equipped for ministry and entrusted to lead others. Some local churches and denominations will adapt; some will not (Hesselgrave 2000).

The need to equip these men and women will demand new avenues of “distance learning,” away from traditional seminaries and into the churches, marketplaces and homes of the world (Smith 1999; Julien 1998). This learning will make new use of technology, including the Internet. However, simply putting audio tapes or video tapes of pastors’ sermons on the Web will not help. Most of the world still does not have access to broad-band downloading and will not have access to streaming video for decades. Further, the cultural context within which the sermons may be heard will not match the home culture of the sermon.

The type of ministry for which we train pastors must change immediately, leading to more distributed, integrated forms of life and service. Congregations will need social and spiritual leaders who understand the new church’s needs and the principles of God’s word. Only such leaders will survive the coming fifty years.

Individualism and differentiated social choice as global values will mean more movement of people toward the congregations which serve them and their family in locally distinct ways. The days when we train future pastors to lead a congregation of one hundred to 150 people with a one-style-fits-all approach are already over.

Ministries to the world will likewise change. There are now some two billion Christians, and by 2050 there will be twelve billion people in the world. This means two billion believers need to reach ten billion people in the next fifty years. Eight billion people will be youth, a focused need noted by David Livermore (2001).

At current training rates, almost all outreach and service ministries will be headed by lay people. Ministry will still take place person-to-person, but forms of coming together, methods of service and outreach, and processes of church formation will be very different than today. Tens (and hopefully hundreds) of thousands of lay people need to respond to God and enter leadership.¹

The focus of ministry will shift from reaching one’s neighbor to reaching whole cities for Christ—a move which has already begun (Haggard and Hayford 1997). A few churches and ministries are now experimenting with these opportunities. Some churches have seen extraordinary growth, with congregations of twenty thousand to more than 100,000. We must capture ideas and best practices from these new forms and methods and learn how to contextualize them.

Our present Christian schools and colleges largely follow the secular model of education used in the world’s universities, even as these universities are changing direction (Rice 2001; Coles 1997). The curriculum content will change drastically. All ministry-related majors need to be vocationally oriented and life related. The study of the Bible and theology should penetrate all fields as well as be taught for their own sake, but never without personal application.

Each of the world’s cities with more than fifty thousand people could have a Christian college supported by and responsible to the local churches. A system of high-level personal discipleship, academic excellence and career training would be taught by teachers who model the academic integration of a Christian worldview and have the practical experience to prepare students for active life work.

These local colleges would also serve the towns’ adult constituency. This would include Bible institutes and adult education. But it should go far beyond this to continuous career training, workshops, cultural development and civic involvement training.

THE NEED FOR SPECIFIC TYPES OF LEADERS
If pastors and other leaders are to adequately equip lay people to lead specific ministries in the twenty-first century, the nature of theological education must change. In the US, evangelical M.Div. programs spend seventy percent of the curriculum on Bible, theology and church history (Heie and Wolfe 1987). Even though roughly thirty percent is allowed for direct ministry formation, much of that focuses on cognitive academic theories rather than practical preparation. The primary goal of this education (though there are a few exceptions) is to prepare students to serve as senior pastor of an existing church of approximately one hundred to two hundred people. This is no longer adequate.

Both the goals of theological education and the balance of programs must change. We need to prepare pastors for leadership of churches of thousands, that will partner with other churches to reach cities for Christ. Jacksonville, Cleveland and Los Angeles already have multi-church training centers for equipping lay leaders. Residential seminaries can provide a curriculum plan, books and materials on the Internet, and can approve local mentors in communities if degree programs are offered. The students then work with local mentors to process and apply their learning. The first year of seminary needs to be more practical and transferable to church/field situations. This is the only model which can meet the needs of the present and future population.

We must emphasize the need to fulfill two goals: self-development (academic and spiritual) and development for ministry (both philosophical and vocational). Classes that fulfill these goals need to be offered (see box below).

The faculty should be practicing models of what the school seeks to produce. At this graduate level in a professional school, the primary aim is to produce lay pastors, senior pastors and missionaries. Pastors and missionaries who have excelled at both the academic doctoral level and in personal ministry should be the faculty. This faculty body should model the scriptural qualities of their elders. Faculty meetings should be models of working together for the gospel’s sake, “looking out for the interests of others” (Phil. 2:4). Faculty should be involved in the total training of the student.

In addition to training faculty, research scholars could be hired by denominations and Christian ministries to do research, and then make the results available to the body of Christ in a variety of ways. This could be far more effective than the current distribution of learning through textbooks and journals.

Those few faculty who genuinely are at the cutting edge of making new intellectual contributions should be supported by churches. If a local church does not want to support a missionary in the academic world, then perhaps a denomination could establish a “think-tank” of scholars to research and relate back to colleges and seminaries. These scholars could best work in a research center rather than a seminary classroom, unless each scholar also models the necessary practical abilities and desires to be involved in students’ lives. These scholars should be available for interaction with faculty and pastors. They should be free to develop the specialty God has given them—scholarship. They would be the resources for ongoing academic training of the Christian college and seminary faculty.

Seminary curriculum would potentially provide all the theoretical and practical training students need in order to move into successful ministry. Once a pastor completes seminary, his or her resources for ongoing growth would include the local Christian college, previously developed relationships with seminary faculty, and the results of scholars’ research.

To best enable this type of seminary training, each division of studies should be defined in relation to its place in achieving the major objectives of theological education (Niebuhr and others 1957, 3). Core goals should include:

1. To prepare leaders to understand and foster the church’s mission.

2. To show that the church exists within society and, though molded by that society, it must nevertheless challenge its society’s un-Christ-like character.

3. To show that the church can accomplish its task in society only as it knows clearly of what it speaks.

4. To show that the heart of tradition is the Bible, and the revelation of God in Christ which it contains.

Students would be selected based on their ability to handle study and their promise of future contribution as Christian leaders in reaching cities for Christ. The seminary will produce leaders who have the fruits of scholarship at their disposal when in ministry.

Overall, the seminary could share the four goals of all graduate education (Bower 1980, 220):

1. The basic objective of advanced study is to help interested people achieve, over their lifetimes, mastery of a field of knowledge.

2. Since any field of knowledge may be used in various ways, only one of which is teaching, persons who undertake advanced study should be helped to acquire reasonable versatility and mobility in their careers.

3. Advanced study should be conducted in ways that will help individuals become cultivated persons as well as professional experts.

4. Advanced study in the aggregate should bring about certain outcomes for society. Examples include staffing the institutions of society with competent professionals and leaders, providing a pool of human resources available to meet social exigencies, serving as carriers and developers of the cultural heritage, promoting sound national economic development, etc.

This openness to all fields of thought and life which lead to reaching cities will need to operate globally in every field—not just seminaries (Thurow 1992; Kennedy 1993). Many teams of leaders have already developed in cities and nations. These teams work together to plan and build metropolitan task and work forces to reach populations numbering in the millions (Katzenbach and Smith 1995; Vandermast and others1995). The development of teams in city-reaching endeavors needs to accelerate.

LEADERSHIP OF SPIRITUAL MOVEMENTS
A spiritual movement may be defined as distinct from a revival or an awakening. Historically an awakening is the short-term, spiritual openness of a group of non-Christians which results in a sharp upswing of conversions. A revival is a renewal of spiritual sensitivity among a group of Christians which results in a new focus on spirituality and holiness of life. A spiritual movement by contrast is a sustained development of evangelism, discipleship and church planting which results in spiritually aware people who seek to reach their city for Christ.

These three elements may occur separately or together. All three have usually been initiated and under-girded by prayer. Revivals and awakenings only occur when the hand of God is unusually active. However, building sustainable spiritual movements has been the norm for the church since Acts 19, when Paul and his band reached much of Asia Minor in two years. God raises up intercessors, witnesses, ministry leaders and pastors who are caught by Christ’s compassion for cities and who accept the vision of reaching their communities for Christ. In this way, personal spiritual formation that leads to transformational community renewal is a product of a spiritual movement (Lawrenz 2000; Averbeck). For example, our school now teaches church history as primarily the history of spiritual movements, which allows us to include missions and institutional growth (which is often the outcome of a movement) in one course.

The leadership needed for a spiritual movement can also be clearly defined. The development of teams in small neighborhoods (approximately thirty families; 100 to 150 people) forms the foundation for sustainable relationships, small groups, personal outreach, acts of service and personal discipleship. In larger neighborhoods (one hundred to one thousand families) ministries can take different forms: education in larger groups, conferences, neighborhood and city outreach and specialized service projects (e.g., outreach to the homeless). Worship may be distributed in neighborhood centers via land lines or satellite (Northland Church in Orlando now has two video extensions and is planning six more), or may be held in larger community buildings which seat four thousand to ten thousand. These buildings may be used for spiritual and civic events during the week. That which works against this movement comes from inside: our denominational separateness and our refusal to take the Great Commission seriously.

Leaders need to be equipped for all these levels of ministry. The individual gifting and calling of leaders can be balanced in the early years with biblical and spiritual development, and then specialized in later years by internships with mature mentors. This will aid the professional development of ministry leaders. Each city, through collective planning, can assess its own needs and resources and develop strategic means of reaching goals.

CONCLUSION
As I have reflected on our historic realities and dreamed a little, I have spoken strongly about some of our needs. Ministry changes due to population factors have rarely been examined in missions literature, partly because world population has grown so dramatically in the last century. The demands of future growth will find the church ten to fifty years behind the curve in meeting leadership needs, or, by grace and hard work, ready to meet the needs. We do not need minor refinement in our systems, but major redesign and specific changes. No aspect of life will be able to ignore the changes that growth creates. None of us who desire to serve Christ faithfully should ignore them.

Endnotes
1. My concern is over their training—to the extent that they get any—most of which is likely to be “in ministry.”

References
Averbeck, Richard. (in press) Spiritual Formation. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Zondervan.

Bright, Bill and James Davis. 2000. Global Pastors Network Conference. Orlando, Fla.: Campus Crusade. Handout materials.

Bower, H. R. 1980. The Philosophy and Future of Graduate Education: Papers and Commentaries Delivered at the International Conference on the Philosophy of Graduate Education at the University of Michigan, April 13-15, 1978. Edited by William K. Frankena, 220-221. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press.

Coles, Robert. 1997. The Moral Intelligence of Children. New York: Random House.

Durant, Will. 1944. Caesar and Christ. New York: Simon and Schuster.

Haggard, Ted and Jack Hayford. 1997. Loving Your City into the Kingdom. Ventura, Calif.: Regal.

Heie, Harold and David L. Wolfe, eds. 1987. The Reality of Christian Learning: Strategies for Faith-Discipline Integration. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Eerdmans.

Hesselgrave, David. 2000. “Essential Elements of Church Planting in the 21st Century.” Evangelical Missions Quarterly 36:1 (January): 24-32.

Julien, Tom. 1998. “The Essence of the Church.” Evangelical Missions Quarterly, 34:2 (April): 148-153.

Kagan, Donald, Steven Ozment and Frank M. Turner. 1998. The Western Heritage, 6th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.

Kane, J. Herbert. 1972. A Global View of Christian Missions. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Baker Book House.

Katzenbach, Jon R. and Douglas K. Smith. 1995. The Wisdom of Teams: Creating the High-Performance Organization. New York: Harper Business.

Kennedy, Paul. 1993. Preparing for the 21st Century. N.Y.: Random House.

Lawrenz, Mel. 2000. The Dynamics of Spiritual Formation. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Baker Book House.

Livermore, David. 2001. “Billions to Be Won: Going after the Largest Mission Field in the World—Youth.” Evangelical Missions Quarterly 37:3 (July): 330-35.

Niebuhr, H. Richard, Daniel Day Williams and James M. Gustafson. 1957. The Advancement of Theological Education. New York: Harper.

Perry, Edouard. 1965. The Hundred Years War. New York: Capricorn.

Rice, Suzanne, ed. 2001. Philosophy of Education. Urbana, Ill.: University of Illinois Press.

Smith, Donald K. 1999. “Reviewing the Place of Western Missions for the Third Millennium.” Evangelical Missions Quarterly 39:1 (January): 56-61.

Thurow, Lester. 1992. Head to Head: The Coming Economic Battle among Japan, Europe, and America. New York: Morrow.

Tranter, Neil L. 1973. Population Since the Industrial Revolution. New York: Harper.

Vandermast, Roberta, Jeffery Donley, Dan Dutkofski and Diann Rothwell Lapin. 1995. Visions and Values. New York: American Heritage Custom Publishing.

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Steve Clinton is president of the Orlando Institute, part of Campus Crusade for Christ. He publishes in the areas of spiritual formation, philosophical foundations and contemporary theology.

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