Two Risk Lists, One Big Difference

Every year the World Economic Forum asks more than 1,300 experts the same question: which single risk is most likely to cause a material crisis in the year ahead? Visual Capitalist recently charted the 2026 results, and the top of the list won’t surprise anyone who reads the news. Geoeconomic confrontation came first at 18%. State-based armed conflict was second at 14%. Extreme weather was third at 8%, followed by societal polarization and misinformation at 7% each.

I read that list with interest, and then I wondered what it would look like through the eyes of people who give their lives to global Christian mission. So, we asked them.

This year Missio Nexus launched the Global Mission Risk & Opportunity Index, or GMROI. 190 mission leaders responded from more than 40 countries: CEOs and presidents, executive team members, field leaders, field missionaries, mobilizers, and educators. Just over half serve in Sub-Saharan Africa. We gave them a list of 20 risks and asked them to pick the three most likely to disrupt Christian mission over the next three to five years. Then we asked which one of those three worries them most.

That last question has the same shape as the one the World Economic Forum asked, so a side-by-side look is hard to resist.

World Economic Forum experts (global, 2026)	Missio Nexus Mission Leaders (GMROI)
1. Geoeconomic confrontation, 18%	1. Shallow Discipleship, 25.3%
2. State-based armed conflict, 14%	2. Geopolitical Fragmentation, 14.5%
3. Extreme weather events, 8%	3. Authoritarian Expansion, 6.5%
4. Societal polarization, 7%	4. Religious Restrictions, 6.5%
5. Misinformation and disinformation, 7%	5. Donor Fatigue, 6.5%

Share of respondents who named each as the single biggest risk. The last three GMROI items tied at 12 responses each. Different people, different timeframes, different questions. Read it as a conversation starter, not a scorecard.

Where the two lists agree

Geopolitical Fragmentation, which we described as global instability, power shifts, and regional conflict realignment, came in second for mission leaders. 36% included it in their top three, and 14.5% named it their biggest risk. That sits comfortably beside the World Economic Forum’s top two.

When the world gets less stable, the church feels it. One field leader in Sub-Saharan Africa wrote that the church there “boasts unprecedented growth,” but that the least-reached people groups live in very volatile areas, and access to them is getting harder.

Where they don’t

The number one risk among mission leaders isn’t on the World Economic Forum’s list at all. It’s Shallow Discipleship, which we described as spiritual immaturity and weak theological formation. 40% put it in their top three, and one in four (25.3%) named it the single biggest risk. The next closest risk was named by 14.5%.

I want to be careful here. These are two different surveys with different people and different time horizons, and ours is a smaller sample that leans toward Sub-Saharan Africa and senior leaders. But the gap is worth sitting with. Most of the global risk conversation is about forces outside of us. When we asked mission leaders, their biggest worry was about the health of the church itself.

There’s another contrast. Extreme weather ranked third for the World Economic Forum’s experts. In our survey, Climate Disruption was chosen by only 3.7% of leaders, and none of the 186 who ranked their top risk named it first. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. It may simply mean leaders were weighing what could most directly hinder their own work. The misinformation concern, on the other hand, shows up in both: our Information Disorder risk landed in 17.9% of top-three lists.

Why look at risk through a Christian lens

For followers of Jesus, the question isn’t only “what could go wrong in the world?” It’s “what could keep the church from being faithful and fruitful in it?” Jesus told his followers to go and make disciples of all nations (Matthew 28:19). A risk list for mission leaders should be measured against that assignment.

Paying attention to risk is also not the opposite of trusting God. Proverbs 15:22 reminds us that plans fail without counsel and succeed with many advisers. Naming what we’re worried about, together, is one way we listen.

What’s coming next

This is the first of four posts. Next I’ll walk through the risks in more detail, including what leaders in Sub-Saharan Africa told us. Then the opportunities, which are more hopeful than you might expect. Finally, what to do with all of it, including questions to bring to your board and leadership team.

In the meantime, explore the interactive dashboard and see how the picture shifts by role and region.

Written by Michael VanHuis, Executive Director of Missio Nexus. For more information, go to missionexus.org.